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Update Jan 19th (Day 105)

By January 20, 2024No Comments

UPDATES ON THE WAR – Day 105 (Jan 19th):

*Anderson Tours has officially decided to move forward with our April Holy Land Tour with contingencies in place to cancel or postpone if deemed unsafe! 

*We are one Day 105 (Jan 19th). FIGHTING CONTINUES in GAZA.

[We have created categories to make our summaries easier to read and understand.]

Headlines:

  • In Yemen, the Houthis again fired at a ship crossing the Bab el-Mandeb strait toward the Red Sea and the Americans, for the fourth time in a week, responded by attacking dozens of Houthi sites on mainland Yemen.
  • In northern Iraq, Iran attacked what it called Israeli “espionage headquarters” in the Kurdish city of Erbil.
  • In Syria, Iran attacked “ISIS targets” in Idlib.
  • In Pakistan, Iran attacked a Sunni militia, triggering a retaliatory Pakistani strike in the Sistan and Baluchestan province in southeastern Iran, near the border between the two countries.

OUCH:

  • The leader of the Houthis in Yemen, Abdel-Malek al-Houthi, promised to continue ship attacks in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, including American and British ships.
  • This week, the region saw the first two rounds between the Houthis and the U.S. There will be other rounds, and yet there is no clarity as to the end game. The Houthis in fact will be emboldened by this attack. They have seized control of Sanna, Yemen’s capital, in 2014, effectively defeated Saudi Arabia in a long and brutal conflict during the ensuing years, and now seek to realize its governing slogan “God Is the Greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, A Curse Upon the Jews, Victory to Islam”.
  • The Houthi attacks on vessels on the Red Sea have had a noticeable effect—insurance rates for cargo hauls have skyrocketed while global trade has dipped by more than 1%.
  • Protesters burn the U.S. flag during a gathering in support of Yemen in front of the British embassy in Tehran, Iran, on Friday. (Credit: WANA NEWS AGENCY/ REUTERS)
  • “Hamas is digging in, and the IDF is far from achieving its goals”
  • Gallant said Hamas is also trying to inflame the Temple Mount and that this could hurt the war effort in Gaza.
  • Thousands have been killed on both sides. 🙁

YEAH:

  • Shipments of medicine for both Palestinians and Israelis held hostage by Hamas began arriving in the Gaza Strip yesterday (Jan 18th) —aid delivered as part of a deal brokered by Qatar and France. The agreement marked the most significant diplomatic breakthrough since a November hostage exchange. Reports suggest supplies will provide three months worth of medicine for around 45 hostages with chronic illnesses. In exchange, 1,000 boxes of medical aid would be provided for injured and sick Gazans for each box delivered to hostages. Red Cross workers are said to be responsible for end-point delivery (how this would be confirmed was not specified).
  • Birthright Tours Begin again: First post-Oct. 7 Birthright Israel trip brings 17 participants; 100s more expected
  • Anderson Tours is resuming Tours to sacred locations in the Holy Land

IN THE SOUTH (RED SEA):

  • U.S. and the UK conducted strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen involved over 60 targets at 16 locations, and over 100 “precision-guided munitions of various types” were used, the Air Force said late Thursday Jan 11th. The strikes were against “command and control nodes, munitions depots, launching systems, production facilities, and air defense radar systems,” U.S. Air Forces Central said in a statement.
  • The Houthis, Iranian-backed militants, have been launching attacks against commercial and military ships in the Red Sea after having declared their support for Hamas, officials have said. The strikes involved aircraft, as well as Tomahawk missiles “launched from surface and sub-surface platforms,” it said. “We remain committed to our critical partners throughout the Middle East to defend against Iranian-backed Militia Groups, including Houthi militants, and the threat they pose to regional security and stability,” Air Force Lt. Gen. Alex Grynkewich, the U.S. Air Forces Central and Combined Forces Air Component commander, said in the statement.
  • Biden said that the military action was “together with the United Kingdom and with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands” and that the rebels were endangering navigation in a vital waterway. “These strikes are in direct response to unprecedented Houthi attacks against international maritime vessels in the Red Sea — including the use of anti-ship ballistic missiles for the first time in history,”
  • The vice president of the Houthi media authority in the rebel-controlled area of Yemen said airstrikes by the U.S. and the U.K. were “a brutal aggression.” The U.S. and the U.K. used fighter jets and Tomahawk missiles to target areas in rebel-controlled Yemen, U.S. officials said. Nasr Aldeen Amer, the vice president of the Houthi Media Authority in Sanaa, confirmed that attacks occurred. “A brutal aggression against our country, for which they will pay absolutely and without hesitation, and we will not back down from our position in supporting the Palestinian people, whatever the cost,” Amer said.
  • The British participation in the strikes signals that there is an international community, not simply one country, seeking to end attacks on shipping vessels, Rothkopf says.
  • About 15% of global seaborne trade passes through the Red Sea, the US says. This includes 8% of global grain, 12% of seaborne oil and 8% of the world’s liquified natural gas.
  • Houthi leadership is also effectively immune from U.S. economic sanctions. The U.S. Treasury may seek to re-impose sanctions against the Houthis as it did initially at the end of the Trump administration. But, Houthi leadership does not bank, trade, invest, shop, or travel in the west. Sanctions may actually shift the burden of Yemen’s own humanitarian crises away from the Houthis themselves. U.S. policy elites are keen to “do something” but sanctions will not have a meaningful impact on Houthi decision- making.
  • The US says the group has so far attempted to attack and harass vessels in the Red Sea and the gulf of Aden 28 times. Some major shipping companies have since ceased operations in the region, while insurance costs have risen 10 times since early December.
  • Yemen’s Houthi rebels fired an anti-ship cruise missile toward an American destroyer in the Red Sea on Sunday (Jan 14th) but a U.S. fighter jet shot it down in the latest attack roiling global shipping amid Israel’s war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, officials said.
  • Reports emerged on Sunday night (Jan 14th) of a suspected US attack on the western Yemeni city of Al Hudaydah, a port city on the Red Sea controlled by the Houthis. Reports also suggested Israel could have been involved in the attack. In the past week, the US, UK, and their allies have launched over 100 airstrikes across Yemen, targeting Houthi infrastructure. Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam described the activity by “enemy” aircraft as a blatant violation of national sovereignty.
  • The United States launched a new strike against the Yemen-based Houthis on Tuesday Jan 16th), hitting anti-ship missiles in the third assault on the Iranian-backed group in recent days, a U.S. official said. The strike came as the Iranian-backed Houthis claimed responsibility for a missile attack against the Malta-flagged bulk carrier Zografia in the Red Sea. No one was injured. The vessel had been heading north to the Suez Canal when it was attacked, the Greek Shipping and Island Policy Ministry said. The Zografia, managed by a Greek firm, had no cargo onboard and sustained only material damage, the ministry said. The crew included 20 Ukrainians, three Filipinos and one Georgian. Satellite-tracking data analyzed by The Associated Press showed the Zografia still moving after the attack.
  • Iran-allied Houthi militia launched two anti-ship ballistic missiles at a U.S.-owned tanker ship on Thursday night (Jan 18TH) that hit the water near the vessel, causing no injuries or damage, U.S. Central Command said.
  • The US again struck Houthi anti-ship missiles in Yemen on Friday (Jan 19th), according to a US official, after the Iran-backed rebels targeted another US-owned commercial ship.
  • More US strikes in Yemen: The US struck additional anti-ship missiles belonging to the Houthi rebels in Yemen today (Jan 19th), according to a US official, marking the sixth time in the past 10 days the US has targeted the Iranian proxy group. The US says it is trying to deter more attacks by the Houthis on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, but Biden conceded Thursday that so far the attacks have not abated. Concerns remain, meanwhile, about widening conflict in the Middle East during the Israel-Hamas war.

GAZA (NORTH):

  • IDF Spokesperson: Israeli forces have completed dismantling Hamas’ “military framework” in northern Gaza and killed around 8,000 militants in that area. The military has also seized tens of thousands of weapons in that area and millions of documents and is now focused on dismantling Hamas in the center of and south Gaza.

GAZA (SOUTH):

  • Communications are gradually being restored in Gaza after a near-total blackout lasted over a week, which severely hampered aid operations.
  • Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that there is no complete solution to the pockets of Hamas resistance, although “the main organizational frameworks were dismantled.”
  • GAZA: The IDF said it raided a Hamas military command center in Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip, seizing weapons, diving equipment and tools of the group’s naval force. The IDF also announced it was withdrawing a combat division from the Gaza Strip. Israel’s elite Duvdevan special forces unit was moved from Gaza to the West Bank.
  • Hamas terrorists emerge from tunnel openings to plant bombs, set booby traps and launch anti-tank missiles at our armored vehicles, and then they disappear back into the tunnels. And the IDF currently has no quick solutions for the fight against Hamas, most of whose members are hiding in the tunnels.
  • Destroying Hamas’ tunnels will take many years, and it will cost Israel many casualties. Even the army now admits that there are hundreds of kilometers of tunnels, located deep underground, with multiple branches. Some even have multiple stories, with many good spots to stage a fight. Hamas built them over the course of decades, with advice from leading experts. They link the length and breadth of Gaza, and also connect it to the Sinai Peninsula under the city of Rafah.
  • Hamas’ tunnels project, which was known to the IDF and to the Shin Bet security service but whose sophistication and extensiveness took Israel by surprise, affords the organization a valuable asset underground, which is almost a tie-breaker in the present campaign.
  • The majority of Hamas’ top leadership is in the tunnels, and in the meantime appears to be relatively protected against attack. Many of the organization’s armed members, and apparently also most of the Israeli hostages, are there as well.
  • Israel is uncovering tunnels and demolishing them, but the pace of the demolition is not keeping up, so far, with the planned timetable for the military operation. And as long as Hamas has a relatively safe space, in which major assets are safeguarded against attack, it is very difficult to defeat the organization.
  • Israeli forces are moving toward a key hospital in southern Gaza, prompting patients and sheltering civilians to flee. “The hospital is shaking and there is panic,” an American doctor told CNN from the Al Nasser hospital in Khan Younis.

POST WAR GAZA:

  • There is “no way” to solve Israel’s long-term security challenges in the region and the short-term challenges of rebuilding Gaza without the establishment of a Palestinian state, U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Thursday (Jan 18th).
  • In early November, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken laid out the “Five Tokyo Principles” – or the American “” Paraphrased, these include: 1. No expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza; 2. Gaza cannot be a staging ground for terrorism; 3. Israel cannot reoccupy, blockade or besiege Gaza; 4. nor chip away at its territory; and 5. There must be no terror threat from the West Bank.
  • Ultimately, diplomats on the ground seem convinced of the need for a serious political transformation of the region. “We’re not going back to October 6,” is a common approach. They are also acutely aware that the issue is globally divisive – not only within Europe but also splitting the “global south” against the traditional international power brokers. And China has tested the waters too, giving tepid statements in October, then this week proposing a peace conference as well. To that end, Western policymakers seem to agree that the Arab world is essential to a future political process. That’s good; for far too long, the term “international community” has been a euphemism for the American and European great powers. But “Arab world” intentions can be no less cryptic. Jordan and Egypt are the most immediately affected by the conflict. Qatar has marked its territory as the regional go-between for the warring parties.
  • The Abraham Accords partners, specifically the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, are facing simmering public anger at Israel. They have responded, respectively, with legal suppression, or else indulged public anti-Zionist sentiment de facto, said Hafsa Halawa, a nonresident scholar at Washington’s Middle East Institute. She noted that even among supporters of the Accords, the attitude is becoming one of “It cannot be that the Abraham Accords come with no price to Israelis.”
  • In terms of long-term political resolution, all eyes are on Saudi Arabia. The kingdom is hedging numerous high-stakes interests, including ongoing détente with Iran, but also retaining room for normalization with Israel. Halawa noted that the Saudis have generally kept a tight lid on public expressions of solidarity with Palestinians, and that it might yet be willing to advance a peace plan, albeit for a much higher price – such as actual Palestinian statehood, and not just a [theoretical] commitment to future Palestinian statehood.
  • “Are Israelis and Palestinians truly incapable of lifting a finger to save ourselves? For now, the answer is yes. This region has descended into hell, and it needs help. A village won’t be enough; we need the whole damned world.” Dahlia Scheindlin (Haaretz reporter)
  • In a press conference, Prime Minister Netanyahu said “any settlement in the foreseeable future” must include Israeli military control over all territory west of the Jordan River.

IN THE NORTH (LEBANON):

  • This weekend, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati announced that calm in southern Lebanon will not be possible so long as the fighting in the Gaza Strip continues. Mikati made the remarks at the start of Thursday’s cabinet meeting, making it clear that the Lebanese government has informed foreign envoys that discussing calm in Lebanon alone is “illogical”. He said, “Our principles dictate that a general cease-fire in the Gaza Strip will be at the same time as calm and a cease-fire in southern Lebanon. We will not agree that our brothers will deal with mass devastation and destruction while we discuss a unilateral agreement just for Lebanon.”
  • The IDF said Monday night (Jan 15th) that its fighter jets attacked “operational infrastructure” belonging to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. According to the statement, Israel attacked targets in the village of Maroun El Ras. Earlier, the military said, interceptor missiles were fired at suspicious aerial targets in Lebanese airspace.

IN THE EAST (IRAQ/SYRIA):

  • Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they have attacked the “espionage headquarters” of Israel in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, state media reported late on Monday, while the elite force also struck in Syria against the Islamic State. “Ballistic missiles were used to destroy espionage centers and gatherings of anti-Iranian terrorist groups in the region late tonight,” Iran’s Guards said in a statement, naming Israel’s Mossad spy agency.
  • The Guards said they launched missile attacks against espionage centers and “gatherings of anti-Iranian terrorist groups” near Iraq’s northern city of Erbil, while targeting the “perpetrators of terrorist operations in the Islamic Republic, particularly the Islamic State”.
  • Explosions were heard in an area some 40 kilometers (25 miles) northeast of Erbil in the Kurdistan region, three security sources said, in an area near the U.S. consulate as well as civilian residences. No U.S. facilities were impacted by the missiles strikes, two U.S. officials told Reuters.
  • The United States has issued a strongly worded condemnation of Iranian attacks in Iraq, which the Islamic Republic claimed targeted the “headquarters of the Israeli Mossad.” The U.S. “strongly condemns Iran’s attacks in Erbil today and offers condolences to the families of those who were killed,” the State Department said in a statement. “We oppose Iran’s reckless missile strikes, which undermine Iraq’s stability. We support the Government of Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government’s efforts to meet the aspirations of the Iraqi people.”

IN THE WEST (TEL AVIV):

  • A protest organized by Standing Together and Women Wage Peace demanding a cease-fire is taking place in Tel Aviv.
  • Demonstrators demanding the release of the hostages blocked the Ayalon highway in Tel Aviv. At the same time, the Hostages and Missing Families Forum released as statement, saying that they intend to intensify the protest measures against the government and for the release of their loved ones.
  • A woman was killed, and 17 people were wounded on Monday (Jan 15th) in a ramming and stabbing attack in three different scenes in the central Israeli city of Ra’anana.
  • According to the Israeli Police, 44-year-old, an illegal worker from the Palestinian town of Bani Na’im in the West Bank, was arrested after ramming civilians with three different vehicles. The police have also detained the suspect’s nephew, 25-year-old who fled the scene.
  • According to a preliminary investigation by the police, one of the suspects stabbed a woman and took control of her car. He then started driving and ran over people on Ahuza Street. The suspect then lost control of the car, got out of it and entered another vehicle, with which he continued to run over pedestrians

WEST BANK:

  • WEST BANK: Security officials have told reporters that the situation in the West Bank is “on the verge of explosion,” and cautioned that if Israel’s political leadership does not make decisions offering an economic future to West Bank Palestinians, the risk of conflict will increase.
  • In the third incident, north of Ramallah, two Palestinians were fatally shot after throwing explosives at a military base, according to the army. Palestinian sources said the two were killed while driving near the Jalazun refugee camp.
  • Near the settlement of Asfar north of Hebron, soldiers killed two Palestinians who broke through a military checkpoint in their car. According to the army, the soldiers gave chase and an exchange of fire began. A rifle, an ax and ammunition were found in their possession.
  • Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned on Sunday about a possible flare-up in the West Bank. During a situation assessment with the army’s Judea and Samaria Division, he said that Hamas “is trying to link Gaza with the West Bank and inflame the territory. We must prevent this in any way possible.”
  • The IDF also announced it was withdrawing a combat division from the Gaza Strip. Israel’s elite Duvdevan Special Forces unit was moved from Gaza to the West Bank.
  • In a press conference, Prime Minister Netanyahu said “any settlement in the foreseeable future” must include Israeli military control over all territory west of the Jordan River.

NEGOTIATIONS – HOSTAGE RELEASE – CEASE FIRE:

  • Hamas released a video Sunday evening (Jan 14th) showing three Israeli hostages held by the organization in the Gaza Strip.
  • Also on Sunday, U.S. President Joe Biden issued a statement, marking 100 days of captivity for the hostages held in Gaza. “Today, we mark a devastating and tragic milestone –100 days of captivity for the more than 100 innocent people, including as many as six Americans, who are still held being hostage by Hamas in Gaza,” Biden said. He added that the hostages and their families are at the “the forefront of my mind as my national security team and I have worked non-stop to try to secure their freedom.” According to the President, the U.S. and its partners are continuing to work towards a deal to return the hostages. Biden said, “I again reaffirm my pledge to all the hostages and their families – we are with you. We will never stop working to bring Americans home.”
  • Qatar said it has brokered a deal between Israel and Hamas that will see medicines delivered to Israeli hostages in Gaza in exchange for the delivery of aid to Palestinian civilians.

GLOBAL RESPONSE & INVOLVEMENT:

  • What Blinken heard in Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar last week is potentially transformational. These countries, with their wealth and clout, are thinking in terms of “regionalization” – meaning a reconfigured Middle East that is compatible with the U.S. concept of two competing axes: an axis of terror and disorder (Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, with the support of Russia); and an axis of stability and cooperation (the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Qatar, Israel and the Palestinian Authority).
  • You could arguably make the point that it is all an overspill of the Gaza war – and in terms of sequence and timeline, that looks like a reasonable assumption. Yet the real negative common denominator here is Iran, not Gaza. That is where the United States may need to skip trying to extinguish local flare-ups and concentrate on co-opting regional allies for the bigger vision. Tactical and immediate responses are a derivative of strategy, not the other way around.
  • The world is on edge. The Middle East is consumed by the Israel-Hamas war, the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, and the risk of spillover between Israel and Hezbollah. Iran and its proxies in Iraq and Syria remain an active threat. The Russian war against Ukraine and the destabilizing risk to Eastern Europe will soon enter its third year with no end in sight. China’s president Xi Jinping is threatening to seize Taiwan. Escalatory events could trigger unknown outcomes, just as the psychotic Hamas attack on October 7th has unforeseeably led to a U.S. strike against the Houthis in northern Yemen. While the U.S. military may have destroyed a few towers or killed a few low level Houthi personnel in Yemen, it does not change the strategic conundrum.
  • Right now, there is no exit to the regional war in the Middle East. This attack on Yemen could certainly lead to direct confrontation between the U.S. and Iran. Critically, a widening conflict also gives advantage to Russia in Ukraine and China with its eye toward Taiwan. Russia and China have every incentive to distract the U.S. further by fueling Iranian objectives against Israel. The world is facing not just a regional war, but a potential global escalation where great power ambitions undergird Middle East chaos and violence. Freedom of navigation through the Red Sea is critical for global trade, and it is an important American interest. Bombing northern Yemen is not.
  • A moment of silence was observed and then shouts of “free Palestine” rang out ahead of the Asian Cup game between Iran and the Palestinian soccer team on Sunday Jan 14th. As the Israel-Hamas war reached the 100-day mark both teams lined up in the center of the field at Education City Stadium and an announcement asked for silence “in memory of the lives tragically lost as a result of the ongoing situation in Palestine.” A hush fell across the stadium in the city of Al-Rayyan in Qatar before the pro-Palestinian chants could be heard coming from members of the crowd. Three-time champion Iran won Sunday’s game 4-1
  • Relatives of Israeli hostages taken during the initial attack by Hamas held a 24-hour vigil over the weekend, calling on the Israeli government to do more to secure their return. Close to 140 hostages remain unaccounted for in Gaza; it is unknown how many may have been killed since their abduction.
  • Various protests—many calling for a cease-fire, others supporting Israel or calling for the return of hostages—were held around the globe.
  • Germany said Friday it would seek to intervene on Israel’s behalf at the International Court of Justice against charges of genocide in Gaza. In principle, any ruling is meant to be legally binding for member nations, though the court has no enforcement mechanism.
  • Saudi Arabia “is closely monitoring with great concern” the situation after the U.S. and the United Kingdom carried out strikes in Houthi rebel-controlled areas of Yemen, the kingdom’s Foreign Affairs Ministry said Friday local time. “While the Kingdom emphasizes the importance of maintaining the security and stability of the Red Sea region, as the freedom of navigation in it is an international demand due to its impact on the interests of the entire world, it calls for restraint and avoiding escalation in light of the events the region is witnessing,” the ministry said in a statement on X, which was published in English by the Saudi Press Agency. Saudi Arabia started a war against the Houthi rebels after the group took control of parts of Yemen, which borders Saudi Arabia, including Yemen’s capital. The Houthi rebels are backed by Iran. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman scaled back his military operation and entered peace talks with the Houthis last year.
  • At Int’l Court of Justice, Israel Presents Robust Defense Despite Half-wit Politicians
  • The Saudi ambassador to the U.S. said at the World Economic Forum on Thursday that any potential normalization agreement with Israel would be conditioned on a ceasefire in Gaza and the creation of an “irrevocable” pathway towards a Palestinian state. Why it matters: Princess Reema bint Bandar Al Saud echoed what the Biden administration has recently said publicly and privately to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said at the World Economic Forum on Tuesday that the Biden administration’s strategy for post-war Gaza is to link normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia to the creation of a political horizon for the Palestinians. Biden administration officials say the U.S. and Saudi Arabia are fully aligned on making that link.
  • The US is expected to re-designate the Houthis as a global terrorist entity, a source familiar told CNN. On Tuesday, the Yemeni group claimed responsibility for an attack on a Greek-owned vessel hours after the US military launched new strikes against Houthi targets.

 

One Opinion article on why Latter-Day Saints may tend to stand with the establishment and recognition of Israel as a State: Why we’re standing with Israel: A Latter-day Saint view” – opinion

 

Holy Land Scripture Series

*If you would like to gain more understanding of the history of this country and conflict from a scriptural standpoint we recommend you take our Holy Land Scripture Course created to accompany our Virtual Tour of the Holy Land. Link below:

 

QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER:

What should Israel do in order to secure peaceful borders and relations with the Palestinians and other Arab neighbors as well as facilitate the release the hostages still being held in Gaza?   

What should Hamas do to get needed support and help? (They are land-locked and restricted and are experiencing extreme economic conditions)

*We know the questions are MANY and the issues deep and complex. We hope the information shared on this blog will help you process all the information and issues.

 

*If you would like to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications when new posts are made please email Dr. Clark Anderson at clark@andersontours.com

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